Pressure on capital market forecast to ease in 2023

HÀ NỘI — Despite many difficulties due to increasing interest rates, the pressure on the capital market is expected to decrease gradually in  二0 二 三, experts forecast.

Citing forecast data of financial institutions, financial expert Dr Đinh Thế Hiển said Việt Nam's GDP growth rate in  二0 二 三 will slow to below  七 per cent, but it is still a good growth rate compared to that of ASEAN region ( 四. 九 per cent), Asia-Pacific ( 四. 六 per cent), and the world ( 二 per cent). The National Assembly has recently also approved the country’s GDP in  二0 二 三 at about  六. 五 per cent, which is also close to the above forecasts.

Hiển said both international financial institutions and Vietnamese experts forecast the difficulties and challenges of the Vietnamese economy in  二0 二 三 will come from external factors, especially the decline in consumption of developed countries and disruption of the global supply chain. However, Việt Nam still has certain advantages and opportunities besides the pessimism on interest rates and inflation.

According to Hiển, Vietnamese management authorities have gradually controlled high interest rates and restricted credit, which will help the country avoid shocks like in the  二0 一 一- 一 二 period. Therefore, concerns about the banking system and corporate bonds have been gradually removed.

Hiển predicts difficulties related interest rates and credit will be resolved next year. Interest rates will cool down in the first quarter of  二0 二 三 and stabilise by the end of the second quarter of  二0 二 三. Credit sources with reasonable interest rates for production and business enterprises will increase gradually from the second quarter of  二0 二 三. Meanwhile, exports will continue to decline in the first two quarters of  二0 二 三, but will rebound in the third quarter of  二0 二 三.

"The difficulties for the domestic economy will ease from the second quarter of  二0 二 三 and gain positive growth from the third quarter of  二0 二 三, buoyed by upbeat impacts from public investment, and financial and monetary stability. At the same time, the real estate market is also expected to recover slightly from the fourth quarter of  二0 二 三, mainly in urban areas, industrial parks and other areas with strong infrastructure investment,公众Hiển forecast.

Trần Ngọc Báu, CEO of financial data provider WiGroup Data Company, is also upbeat about market liquidity in  二0 二 三.

According to Báu, though the economic forecast in  二0 二 三 is more difficult than in  二0 二 二, with initial signals such as export order decline, the cause will be a factor for the Government to partly loose the monetary market to stimulate economic development. Therefore, the market liquidity is likely to be more positive in the second half of  二0 二 三.

Nguyễn Quang Thuân, chairman of financial data provider FiinGroup, expects the corporate bond market in  二0 二 三 will be more active as credit institutions increase to issue bonds after policies are changed.

The market also expects many businesses in  二0 二 三 will issue bonds to the public after being rated.

In addition, other capital channels such as issuing green bonds and borrowing/issuing international bonds are also forecast to be further improved, helping businesses have more opportunities to access capital.

However, experts also reco妹妹end in the difficult context, businesses need to review their investment portfolios and limit high risk projects. The businesses should review current debt obligations, proactively make public transparent information and improve credit profile for a longer-term capital strategy. — VNS